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Equity Gains Mask Broader Risk as Weakening Labor Market Bolsters Front-End Yields

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER Q3 2025
Domestic equities enjoyed an exceptionally strong quarter, with major market indices (S&P 500 +8.1%, Nasdaq +11.4%, and Dow Jones +5.7%) advancing to new all-time highs. The relative strength of the S&P/Nasdaq vs the Dow further solidifies the dichotomy between growth and value, as continued momentum in AI/technology stocks fueled much of the rally for the quarter. To expand on this, of the 8.1% total return on the S&P 500 for third quarter, more than half, or 4.3 percentage points of that total return came from information technology stocks alone. The performance concentration in tech highlights the deteriorating breadth in equity markets, with mega-cap info-tech and comm-services stocks carrying equity index returns YTD, while most non-tech related sectors lagged considerably.

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Two hands shaking with industry overlayed in their arms and trade transportation underneath.

Equities Rebound and Bonds Rally as Easing Trade Tensions and Inflation Bolsters Investor Confidence

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER Q2 2025
U.S. equities finished Q2 on a strong note, with the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high, an impressive turnaround after a volatile start to the quarter. Markets were initially rattled in early April following the announcement of Trump’s tariff plan. Between April 2nd and April 8th, the S&P 500 fell more than 12%, marking its worst four-day decline since March 2020. Investor sentiment quickly reversed, however, after the White House signaled a willingness to revisit the policy and implemented a 90-day pause on the most severe measures. This triggered a sharp rebound on April 9, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%—its biggest one-day gain since 2008—and the NASDAQ jumping 12.2%, its largest single-day increase since 2001.

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Volatility Spikes and Markets Whipsaw as Tariffs, Economic and Geopolitical Tensions Unsettle Investors

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER Q1 2025
After two exceptionally strong years in US markets with consecutive 23%+ gains, domestic equities closed lower in the first quarter of 2025 amid heightened economic and political uncertainty. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite experienced their biggest quarterly drop since 2022, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 4.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite falling just over 10% for the quarter. This broad market selloff continued for most cyclical areas of the markets as the on and off nature of tariff negotiations and threats intensified.

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Shipping containers on chains smashing into each other. Each container represents a different country from the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Trump Trade Shakes Up Status Quo in Equity Markets, Rates Rise 60 Basis Points (bps) as Fed Cuts

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER Q4 2024
Despite a historic post-election rally and multiple record highs for the S&P 500, the index returned +2.39% in its weakest quarter of 2024, ending the year with a selloff across multiple sectors. Mag 7 stocks (housed in Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Information Technology sectors) and Financials (+7.06% Q4) found strength while other sectors declined, led by Materials (-12.42% Q4) and Healthcare (-10.30% Q4).

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